As we head into spring, the backdrop for real estate is quietly improving while uncertainty in the general market rises. The 10-year Treasury briefly slipped below 4%, mortgage rates have eased, and Wall Street bonuses are flowing — putting fresh liquidity into the market. New York City, in particular, looks well-positioned.
Unlike many parts of the country that saw dramatic post-pandemic price spikes, much of NYC’s growth occurred earlier, between 2012 and 2016. Today, replacement costs often exceed asking prices, as new development faces higher land, labor, and material expenses. With limited supply and resilient demand, the stage is set for a strong spring market. The fundamentals supporting New York real estate are hard to ignore — and there’s still no market quite like it.
That being said, geopolitical challenges remain. The ongoing conflict involving Iran has added a layer of uncertainty to financial markets that reverberates here at home. Global equities have seen sudden volatility, which can influence inflation expectations and bond markets — the very forces that help shape mortgage rates and buyer confidence. While the direct impact on New York real estate fundamentals isn’t clear-cut yet, this kind of macroeconomic uncertainty tends to make some buyers more cautious — watching rates, costs, and sentiment closely before committing.
Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates have eased, settling into the low 6% range — the most stable environment we’ve seen in years. We are seeing many of our buyers get rates in the low 5’s and some with strong banking relations in the high 4s. Consistency is more important than any single rate drop. When borrowing costs swing, buyers hesitate; when they level off, confidence returns. For NYC buyers, this may be less about timing the perfect rate and more about recognizing opportunity — especially as inventory, negotiation strategy, and potential policy changes begin to shape the next phase of the market.
Manhattan Luxury Market Update ($4M+): 32 contracts were signed in Manhattan last week at $4M and above, nine more than the prior week. Condos led the activity with 20 deals, followed by nine co-ops and three townhouses. February ended with 123 contracts signed compared to 114 in February 2025, but the bigger story was dollar volume: $1.38B traded (average price $11.24M) versus $955M (average price $8.38M) last year, driven by several ultra high-priced transactions.
Rental Market: A new analysis of more than 300,000 rental listings over the past year shows just how tight the market has become. Median asking rents have reached record highs across all boroughs, with one-bedrooms at $3,785 and two-bedrooms at $4,300, based on real-time pricing when units hit the market between April 2025 and February 2026. By borough, Manhattan remains the most expensive at $4,730, followed by Brooklyn at $3,800, while the Bronx has surpassed $3,100 for the first time. Even neighborhoods once considered relative value plays, like Hunters Point in Queens, are now seeing one-bedrooms top $4,300 — underscoring the continued pressure across the city.
Compass Launches Redfin Partnership Increasing ‘Coming Soon’ Listing Reach: When you list your home as a Compass Coming Soon, it can reach 60 million buyers through syndication on Redfin.com, without negative insights like days on market or public price drop history that can damage its perceived value.
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Prioritized Visibility: Your home receives premium placement on Redfin.com, prioritizing it in search results.
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No Visible Price Drop History: Price reductions are not publicly displayed, protecting your home’s value.
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No Public Days on Market: While we build early demand, your home does not accumulate public days on market, a metric buyers often use against you.
Compass Continues to Outpace Market: Compass agents completed 250,360 total transactions in 2025. In Q4, we outpaced the market yet again with transaction growth of 19.7% year-over-year, versus the broader U.S. market which grew by just 0.7% for the same period. This marks 19 consecutive quarters that Compass has outperformed the market.
Compass closed $267.0 billion in sales volume during 2025. In Q4, $65.6 billion in sales volume, a year-over-year increase of 21.5%, while the broader U.S. market grew by just 2.7% for the same period.
Check out our video post here on the Compass Buyer Demand Tool.
As always, please reach out with any questions.
