January 2020 Market Overview

January 2020 Market Overview

  • Karp Dagan Team
  • 01/1/20

Manhattan’s housing market went through highs and lows in 2019. Records were shattered. Sales surged and stumbled. While the future still holds economic uncertainty from shifts in trade, alliances, taxes, and more, it appears the condo/coop market in Manhattan is stabilizing. Last quarter, sales were up 1%, prices started to bounce back, inventory was lower, and mortgage rates remained steady. After several months of a 'wait-and-see' mentality, many buyers with regained confidence saw prices adjust to the new realities and stepped in to buy. We expect the first half of this year to be the busier part of 2020 with the Presidential election on the horizon for the end of the year.

We hope you have a very happy new year!

Baby Boomers Fleeing New York New York has lost around 0.39% of its population in the past 12 months, while the overall population rose about 0.4% in the past decade. New York City has 14 of the 20 zip codes with the largest numbers of Baby Boomers in the USA. And yes, many Baby Boomers head to warmer and cheaper climates as they retire, especially with New York’s tremendous estate tax potential. Chicago, Houston, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Washington, D.C., and Portland, Ore. also lost population.

The states with the largest annual increase in population during 2019 were Texas (367,000 more residents) and Florida (233,000 increase).  States with smaller populations may not have net increases as large but can have rapid percentage gains.  Nevada and Idaho had annual population growth of more than 1.7% in 2019, the fastest growth rate among U.S. states.

Roughly 72 million Americans were born between 1946 and 1964, about 20% of the US population: In about 10 years this group will reach their mid-80's, the typical move-in age for senior housing. 

2018 and 2019 Lacked Urgency The urgency to buy remained largely absent in 2019, as it was the previous year. Listings continued to linger until sellers lowered prices or offered other incentives. Only 6% of listings went above the asking price. Comparatively at the market’s peak, in 2015, nearly ⅓ of all sales had sold above list price.

A Decade of Construction The past decade was marked by a construction boom. Luxury inventory, properties above $3 million, alone jumped around 20% from 10 years ago, according to the appraiser Jonathan J. Miller. As supply stacked, market sentiment shifted toward buyers, who in past days, not long ago, were readily purchasing from floor plans and encountering bidding wars that drove up prices. Now they’re being met with large discounts and concessions. 

Mortgages Rates Interest rates stayed low, defying experts’ predictions that 2019, finally, would be the year the 30-year fixed rate would take off from 5% and beyond. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.72% during the week ending Jan. 2, down two basis points from the previous week. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell three basis points to an average of 3.16%. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage, meanwhile, increased one basis point to an average of 3.46%. Overall, mortgage rates started off 2020 roughly 80 basis points lower than they were at the start of 2019. 

We also wanted to share some amazing Compass Milestones that were achieved in 2019!

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