As we move into September, the real estate market enters its brief but typically busy fall season—lasting from the end of September through Thanksgiving. While September is often slower for signed contracts, it's also when inventory begins to pick up, setting the stage for increased activity in the weeks ahead.
Several key themes will shape this fall’s market dynamics. Economic indicators—particularly the Fed’s upcoming decision, along with jobs and inflation data—will impact mortgage rates and buyer confidence. In the luxury segment, expect added sensitivity to stock market volatility, which tends to spike this time of year.
On the ground, new listings usually rise as summer winds down and families refocus post–back-to-school. Some buyers will wait in hopes of rate cuts, while others may move quickly to secure deals. In NYC, recent political shifts—like Mamdani’s surprising primary win—could also give some buyers pause until there’s more clarity around the election landscape.
Despite mixed signals, fall often brings a surge of renewed energy. Domestic and international buyers typically re-engage, but economic and political headlines will play a bigger role than usual in shaping momentum.
Bottom line: The post–Labor Day market will be fueled by fresh inventory, mortgage rate movement, and shifting buyer psychology.
International Buyers: The U.S. dollar has fallen nearly 11% since the start of the year—its worst performance in over 50 years—reshaping the global real estate landscape. For international buyers, particularly those using European currencies, NYC property prices now appear more than 10% lower purely due to exchange rate shifts. While there’s no panic or price collapse locally, and domestic buyers remain cautious amid ongoing uncertainty, the international perspective tells a different story: New York City is quietly on sale.
Mortgage Rates Hit 10-Month Low: Good news for homeowners and buyers: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped to its lowest point in 10 months, according to Freddie Mac. This marks the ninth drop in the past 12 weeks, as the market anticipates a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
What does this mean for you? Over two million homeowners are now in a position to save money by refinancing, up from 1.7 million just a month ago, based on data from ICE Mortgage Technology. And if rates continue to slide toward 6%, nearly six million borrowers could benefit from at least a 0.75% reduction in their mortgage rate.
Tariffs, Inflation & the Fed: What to Watch: With new tariffs in play, many are wondering: Will rising import costs push inflation higher and cause the Fed to hold off on cutting rates? While tariffs can increase prices, it's worth noting that only about 16% of U.S. goods are imported—limiting the potential impact. Still, market watchers are keeping a close eye on how this could affect inflation trends, interest rates, and overall buyer confidence heading into the fall market. At 3%, inflation steadily erodes the value of money—making long-term fixed-rate mortgages and real estate as a hard asset even more appealing.
Luxury Market: Sixteen contracts were signed last week in Manhattan at $4 million and above—six fewer than the previous week. Condos led the activity, outselling co-ops 11 to 3, with one condop and one townhouse also in the mix.
Last week’s total is in line with the 10-year average of 16.5 contracts typically signed during the week before Labor Day.
August closed out on a high note with 92 contracts signed—making it the 4th strongest August since 2006. The top years remain 2021 (143 contracts), 2015 (97), and 2014 (94).
Rental Market: Rental inventory in NYC rose 4.9% month-over-month in July to 39,532 units—more than double the typical seasonal increase. While inventory is still down 7.7% from last year, it’s up 19.1% compared to July 2022, when renters faced peak competition.
Manhattan continues to tighten, with inventory down 11.2% year-over-year for the 16th straight month. Strong demand pushed median asking rents up 8.5% to $4,745—the 11th consecutive annual increase—helping drive the citywide median to $4,064 (up 6.9%).
That said, more options are emerging across Brooklyn and Queens. Nine of the 10 fastest-growing neighborhoods for rental inventory were in these boroughs, led by Gowanus and Jamaica, where new developments are quickly expanding supply.
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