The “Mamdani Effect”? All Noise.
The election is over - and a new era begins. Mamdani has been elected New York City’s next mayor. Within days, our phones and inboxes lit up with many past clients asking “Is now the time to list?”.....“Should I get out before it gets bad?”
Meanwhile, the narrative from the brokerage community outside New York is fanning the flames: “Real estate booms in [Enter City of your Choice] as wealthy NYers rush to buy homes thanks to ‘Mamdani Effect’”. Signal or Noise? If you ask us - it’s all noise. The data tells a completely different story.
Here are the facts:
(1) 41 contracts above $4M were signed last week - the most since May - with 24 signed after Mamdani’s win. The wealthy aren’t leaving.
(2) Across all price points, Manhattan contract signings (our measure of demand) have now hit two straight weeks of highs not seen since 2021’s post covid boom. That’s with mortgage rates around 6%. September and October were the strongest two months we’ve seen since 2022. There's a scent of recovery in the air.
So be mindful of what you feed your brain. Sensational headlines and memes stating “RIP NYC” may fit one’s worldview or eco chamber but they don’t reflect what’s actually happening in NYC Real Estate.
Fall Market: New York City’s fall home-shopping season opened on a strong note as easing mortgage rates encouraged more buyers to re-enter the market. In September, 1,721 homes went into contract, marking a 10.3% increase year-over-year and the highest September contract activity since 2021.
While many national markets are seeing hesitant sellers, NYC is experiencing the opposite. Homeowners are stepping forward, fueled by robust buyer interest. A total of 4,581 new listings hit the market in September, up 9.6% from a year earlier. The combination of fresh inventory and motivated buyers sets the stage for a lively and competitive fall season.
Luxury Market: Last week, Manhattan recorded 41 contracts at $4 million and above, four more than the previous week. It was also the first time the luxury market hit the 40-plus benchmark since late May, and the fourth straight week with 30 or more signed contracts. Condos continued to lead the way, outselling co-ops 25 to 9, with 2 condops and 5 townhouses in the mix. And despite the recent mayoral election and the concerns swirling around its potential impact on the real estate market, 24 of the 41 contracts were actually signed in the days immediately following the results, suggesting that buyers are still moving decisively.
New Development: New York City’s new development sector is facing a challenging autumn. October brought 215 signed contracts, a decline of about 30% year-over-year, according to the latest Marketproof data. This marks the third consecutive month where new development activity has trailed last year’s pace, resulting in an overall 19% drop in contract volume during that span.
Citywide demand remains solid, but the segment continues to be hamstrung by a shortage of fresh product. In Brooklyn especially, the pipeline has thinned noticeably: only 146 new units were introduced over the past two months, compared with 240 units launched during the same period a year ago. Without more compelling inventory coming online, buyers seem to be looking elsewhere.
Rental Market: As the summer leasing rush tapers off, NYC rents are showing their expected seasonal easing. The median asking rent dipped 1.4% in September to $3,995, a pattern consistent with the late-summer trends seen in 2017–2019. Fewer listings are coming online as well: rental inventory citywide fell 2.5%, suggesting more tenants are renewing rather than relocating—likely a reflection of affordability pressures in the sales market and softening confidence in the labor market.
In Manhattan, the squeeze on supply persists. Inventory declined for the 19th straight month in September, underscoring sustained demand even as the broader market cools for fall.
Compass Has a Record Shattering Quarter: Compass agents completed 67,886 transactions in Q3, a 22% year-over-year increase, compared to just 2% growth in the overall market. They closed $70.7 billion in sales volume during Q3, up 22.5% from Q3 2024, while the overall market rose only 4.5% in the same period. Compass’ quarterly market share also grew to 5.63%, an increase of 0.83% year-over-year.
Curious why fixer upper apartments sell at big discounts? Check out our post here.
As always, please reach out with any questions.
